SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF THE TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION AND ITS REPRODUCTION IN SAMIL-R_(42)L_9     

贾小龙  李崇银 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(2):173-176

Seasonal variations of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and relationship to seasonal variation of the climate background are studied by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and output of SAMIL-R42L9. Analysis of NCEP data shows that spatial distribution of the tropical ISO has obvious seasonal variations, which are well consistent with the seasonal variation of climate background. The activity of the tropical ISO is, to a great extent, dependent on warm SST, strong convection, zonal western wind, strong precipitation and low-level moisture convergence. Main characteristics of the seasonal variations of the tropical ISO are captured by SAMIL-R42L9. Simulations of seasonal variation of climate background vary greatly with different variables. Results of SAMIL-R42L9 indicate that the seasonal variations of the tropical ISO in dynamical fields are more dependent on climate background than in heating fields and SAMIL-R42L9 cannot represent well the strong dependence of the ISO on the climate background present in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It also suggests that seasonal variations of the ISO do not completely depend on that of climate background.  相似文献   

Study on the Relationship of Seismic Design Ground Motion at Different Fortification Levels in the Xinjiang Region     

Tang Lihua 《中国地震研究》2007,21(4):372-378

The seismic risk analysis results of 79 cities in Xinjiang are presented, and the bedrock peak ground accelerations under three seismic levels and their ratios are discussed. Then, the relationship between earthquake environments and the seismic risk analysis results of different exceeding probabilities are researched. The results show that minor and major earthquake motion parameters calculated from moderate earthquakes do not have a consistent probability and the ratio of bedrock peak accelerations under different exceedance probabilities are closely correlated with earthquake environments.  相似文献   

热带大气季节内振荡的季节性特征及其在SAMIL-R₄₂L₉中的表现   总被引：2，自引：5，他引：2  

贾小龙  李崇银 《热带气象学报》2007,23(3):219-228

分析了NCEP资料和SAMIL-R42L9中热带大气季节内（30～60天）振荡（ISO）的季节变化特征及其与平均气候场季节变化的关系。NCEP资料的分析表明：热带地区大气ISO在空间分布上存在明显的季节变化,大气ISO的季节变化与平均背景场的季节变化有明显的一致性。在空间分布上,热带大气ISO的活动对暖的SST、强的对流活动、西风、强的降水和低层水汽辐合有很强的依赖性。大气环流模式SAMIL-R42L9基本能够再现热带大气ISO空间分布上的季节转换特征,尤其在动力场（纬向风）上表现得最为明显。但对基本气候态季节变化的模拟,对不同的物理量有明显的差异。模式结果表明：热带大气ISO动力因子的季节性比热力因子的季节性对平均背景场的依赖性更大,模式不能很好地反映NCEP资料表现出来的ISO对平均背景场的强依赖性,同时也说明热带大气ISO的季节性可能并不完全依赖于平均背景场的季节变化。  相似文献   

国外气象业务中心核心预报能力的比较和发展     

李婧华  田晓阳  贾朋群 《气象科学进展》2019,(1):8-15

基于文献和世界气象组织(WMO)世界气象中心以及部分国家气象中心网站的信息,梳理了世界主要气象业务中心的全球天气预报模式预报指标,分析了当前领先气象业务中心的预报水平,并对反映其核心预报能力的天气和气候预报技巧指标进行了比较。在对过去10多年来预报技巧进步趋势分析的基础上,对领先气象业务中心在2025和2035年可能达到的预报指标进行了推测。尽管未来各主要气象业务中心预报系统的提升速率将明显放缓,但是可预报时效将会大大提高:到2025和2035年,500 hPa位势高度的预报时效将分别提高至8.5和10.5 d,高分辨率模式的预报时效将分别提升至7.6和8.4 d,而多种模式要素预报的有效性将全面接近并可能进入10 d。天气型转变预测和MJO预测是反映气候预测的两个核心指标。针对Ni?o 3.4海温距平的未来3和6个月预测,相关性未来分别可能达到93%和86%(2025年)以及96%和90%(2035年),而气候模式对MJO的预报时效在2025年将可能达到49 d。新预报量的设计和业务化、下一代数值预报模式以及资料同化技术的研发等,将成为数值天气预报领域发展的新趋势。  相似文献   

中国近海2011年灾害性海浪分析及2012年预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李本霞  邢闯 《海洋预报》2012,29(3):20-25

总结分析了2011年中国近海有效波高为4 m以上的灾害性海浪过程及灾情概况,并对本年度的预测结果进行了检验评估。依据1968—2011年有效波高≧4 m的灾害性海浪的统计资料,结合2012年副热带高压及热带风暴的分析预测资料,预测了2012年中国近海灾害性海浪过程的出现次数,以及分海区的出现天数,预测结果可为今年的海洋防灾减灾提供技术支持。  相似文献   

芦山7.0级地震前单台波速异常变化研究     

隗永刚  陈学忠  郭祥云  蔡一川  王恒信 《地震》2014,34(2):105-114

利用芦山7.0级地震震中周边台站(CD2、 MEK、 GZA、 MDS、 HSH、 JJS、 XJI、 DFU、 EMS、 JYA、 YGD)2009年1月1日至2013年4月20日记录到的近震资料, 采用单台波速比以及单台P波视速度、 S波视速度计算方法进行了波速分析研究。 结果表明, 自2010年底左右开始, 震中附近区域的CD2、 MEK、 GZA、 MDS、 HSH、 JJS台站同步出现了长达两年明显的P波视速度和S波视速度低值异常现象, 且异常现象都集中在龙门山断裂带及周边地区, 单台波速比也有不同程度的异常反应。 故多个台站同步出现长时间、 明显的单台视速度低值异常现象, 并且集中在某一断裂带附近时, 则有可能是大震孕育的先兆。  相似文献   

Multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growing period of crops in Northeast China     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2015

Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural water status during crop growth season can provide scientific evidences for more efficient use of water resources and sustainable development of agricultural production under climate change. In this study, the following were used to evaluate the multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growth period of crops in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010: (1) the daily climate variables gathered from 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China for 1961–2010; (2) FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Penman–Monteith equation; (3) 80% guaranteed probability for agro-climatic indicators; and (4) the daily average temperature stably passing 0 °C, which is the threshold temperature of climatic growth period for crops. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) and relative moisture index were further calculated. The results showed that Northeast China’s climate in the main agricultural areas over the past 50 years was warmer and drier in general, with a growing range and intensity of drought. From 1961 to 2010, when the daily average temperature stably passed 0 °C, the average annual total precipitation (P) and ET₀ with 80% guaranteed probability in Northeast China both emerged as decreasing trends with averages of 555.0 mm and 993.7 mm, respectively. However, the decline in P was greater than that of annual total ET₀. As a result, the annual relative moisture indices sharply decreased with an average of −0.44, mostly fluctuating from −0.59 to −0.25. As far as spatial distributions were concerned, the inter-regional reductions in P and relative moisture index over the past 50 years were conspicuous, especially in some agricultural areas of central Heilongjiang Province, northeastern Jilin Province and northeastern Liaoning Province. On the contrary, ET₀ obviously increased in some agricultural areas of central and northwestern Heilongjiang Province (eg. Qiqiha’er, Shuangyashan, Hegang, Suihua, etc.), and northeastern Jilin Province (eg. Baicheng). This indicated that drought existed and was unfavorable for crop growth and development, especially during the period of 2001–2010. This finding revealed that drought was still one of the most important agricultural meteorological disasters in Northeast China. Some countermeasures should be formulated to adapt to climate change. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies, for breeding scientists to breed higher yielding cultivars, and for agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.  相似文献   

CE-318太阳光度计及探空数据反演水汽含量与MODIS近红外水汽产品对比     

李成  黄秋燕  覃志豪 《地球信息科学学报》2017,19(7):994-1000

大气水汽含量是遥感定量反演的重要参数。本文利用CE-318太阳光度计,反演了2014年6月至2016年5月南宁市的大气水汽含量,分析其季节变化特征,并将其与探空数据、MODIS近红外水汽产品数据进行相关性分析。结果表明：（1）南宁市大气水汽含量季节变化特征明显：夏季高达4~6 g/cm²,而冬季则只有2 g/cm²,与南宁地处亚热带地区有关。夏季该地区季风气候盛行,大气水汽含量高,冬季季风气候减弱,大气相对干燥。（2）CE-318太阳光度计反演的大气水汽含量（PW）与探空数据获取的水汽含量之间存在良好的线性相关,相关系数为0.877,平均绝对误差为0.42 g/cm²,平均相对误差为10.96%;而MODIS近红外波段反演的水汽精度较低,平均绝对误差为0.74 g/cm²,平均相对误差为18.74%。  相似文献   

激光拉曼光谱在有机包裹体研究中的应用——以苏里格气田西部盒8段油气包裹体为例     

董会  王志海  董敏  李宏  魏小燕  梁积伟 《地质力学学报》2017,23(4):594-601

以苏里格气田西部盒8段储层砂岩油气包裹体为例,应用激光拉曼探针微区原位分析技术,对其赋存于石英颗粒表面愈合裂隙、次生加大边的2期含烃有机包裹体的成分及其相对摩尔百分含量进行测定:早期包裹体主要为含气态烃和含盐水气态烃的气液两相有机包裹体,晚期包裹体为含气态烃气液两相有机包裹体;其气相成分以CO_2、CH_4和N_2等气体为主,溶解有CO、H_2S、H_2、C_2H_2、C_2H_4、C_2H_6、C_4H_6等气体;液相成分以H_2O和CO_2为主,此外还含有极少量的阴离子SO_4~(2-)和CO_3~(2-)离子(小于0.03 mol/L)。研究表明:早期有机包裹体含有大量CO_2无机气体、H_2O和少量低碳烷烃,说明早期有机质成熟度处于未成熟—低成熟阶段,虽有天然气生成,但运移规模有限,形成的有机包裹体极少,反映了天然气进入储层后置换地层水的过程;晚期有机包裹体与之相反,烃类和N2含量均较高,而CO_2无机气体和H_2O含量均较低,可见晚期有机包裹体代表了油气形成高峰和大规模进入储层成藏期间的流体特征,为有机质的热演化程度,油气生成、运移,划分油气成藏期次提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

全球变暖"停滞"研究综述   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘珊  陈幸荣  蔡怡 《海洋学报》2019,41(4):1-14

全球变暖"停滞"现象自提出以来，备受关注，是近来全球气候变化领域的热点问题。全球变暖停滞主要表现为全球平均表面温度在1998-2012年增温速率明显偏低。除此之外，大气环流和海洋环流也发生了显著改变。在归因分析方面，很多科学家认为太平洋年代际振荡发挥了重要作用，另外的可能因素还有大西洋经向翻转环流和南极底层水的改变等。然而，由于观测资料在时间一致性和空间覆盖区域等方面存在偏差，从而为全球变暖停滞增添了诸多不确定性。但气候系统内部变率发生改变，导致深层海洋吸收热量增多是众多科学家的共识。尝试解答变暖停滞研究中的不确定性问题，观测资料的丰富和完善是必要条件。  相似文献